Drought Deepens in Kenya’s ASALs as 3.69 Million Face Food Insecurity if Rains Fail

                                                                     

Drought Deepens in Kenya’s ASALs as 3.69 Million Face Food Insecurity if Rains Fail

By Maximilla Wafula 

February 2026  Nairobi ASAL Counties - Kenya’s northern and Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) counties are entering a dangerous new phase of drought and food insecurity, with 3.27 million people currently facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) representing nearly 18.5 percent of the affected population. One in five people is now in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.

Of those affected, 2,873,380 people are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while 399,850 people are already in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) just one step below famine conditions. Although no population is presently classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) for food security, the nutrition situation in some areas has reached extreme levels, narrowing the margin before famine thresholds are crossed.

If the March–May 2026 long rains underperform, projections indicate that the number of people in Crisis or worse could rise to 3.69 million, with up to 607,437 people potentially falling into Emergency conditions. Under such a scenario, 20 percent of the ASAL population would face high acute food insecurity. Mandera County illustrates the severity of the crisis. Following the poor performance of the October–December 2025 short rains, the county has entered the Alarm drought phase. More than 335,000 people require humanitarian assistance. Mandera is now classified under IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5 (Extremely Critical). An estimated 86,360 children aged 6–59 months require treatment for acute malnutrition, including 20,165 children suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM).

Additionally, over 17,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls urgently require nutrition support. Nationally, 810,871 children need management for acute malnutrition, nearly 500,000 of them within ASAL counties alone. The crisis is driven by cumulative shocks: consecutive below-average rainfall seasons, declining livestock productivity, reduced milk availability, elevated food prices, increased water scarcity, disease burden, and nutrition commodity stock-outs.

Refugee-hosting camps are also under significant strain, with 60 percent of residents classified in Crisis or Emergency. The Government of Kenya, through NDMA coordination mechanisms, has allocated KES 6 billion for drought response, alongside ongoing monthly interventions. County governments and humanitarian partners, including the ASAL Humanitarian Network (AHN), have launched locally led response efforts beginning in Mandera. Kenya is not yet in famine. However, with worsening projections, early warning must translate into early action. Timely, flexible, and adequately scaled financing remains critical to prevent Crisis from becoming Catastrophe.